BJP faces challenge in key states before LS polls

Subhasish Mitra (Wide Angle)

Assembly elections in a bunch of key states towards the end of this year will set the tone for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

 

In most of these states the BJP faces a challenge, according to an internal assessment of the party.

 

Along with heartland states — the mainstay of the party — like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the southern state of Telangana is due for polls.

 

Against this backdrop, the Narendra Modi government celebrated its nine years in power listing out its major achievements during the period.

 

The BJP has planned a month-long campaign to celebrate the ninth anniversary with various mass connect programmes with Prime Minister Modi himself addressing a rally in Ajmer in Rajasthan on Wednesday.

 

“Today, as we complete 9 years in service to the nation, I am filled with humility and gratitude. Every decision made, every action taken, has been guided by the desire to improve the lives of people. We will keep working even harder to build a developed India. #9YearsOfSeva,” Modi tweeted.

 

But, party insiders do not rule out a tough fight in all the three heartland states. Of the three, the BJP has been ruling Madhya Pradesh for four terms while the other two — Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh — are Congress-helmed.

 

“After four terms, winning any state is a challenge. We are, however, hopeful that our organisational strength and the popularity of Modiji will help us retain Madhya Pradesh,” a top BJP leader said requesting anonymity.

 

He acknowledged a similar challenge in Chhattisgarh but was confident of winning Rajasthan, which alternates between the Congress and the BJP. After the setback in neighbouring Karnataka, the party does not hope to work wonders in Telangana.

 

After the back-to-back defeats in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka, BJP managers have realised that even a “hard-working Modi” cannot counter anti-incumbency in state elections.

 

The bigger worry is the risk of Brand Modi losing its shine because of the regular setbacks in the state polls.

 

“Modiji’s popularity is still strong but if we continue to put his image at stake in state elections and face defeat, then it is bound to dim the aura of invincibility around him,” a BJP leader said, fearing that this could impact the Lok Sabha polls.

 

Perhaps, with this scenario in mind, home minister Amit Shah had scaled down the target for 2024 to 300 Lok Sabha seats after leaders had earlier been told to get ready with the slogan “Abki baar 400 paar” (This time over 400 seats).

 

Modi had won a second term in office after the BJP swept the Lok Sabha elections in 2019, bagging 303 seats in the 543-member House.

 

Indeed, there is a growing worry in the BJP in the run-up to the 2024 general elections over “total dependence” on 'Brand Modi' that does not seem to be working in state polls.

 

The government and the BJP have been celebrating nine years of the Modi dispensation since last week, focused on hailing Brand Modi.