Bumpy ride for BJP, Cong in northeastern hill states

Subhasish Mitra (Wide Angle)

The BJP and its NDA allies suffered setbacks in the Lok Sabha elections in the distant northeast, losing three seats it held, while the opposition Congress saw a resurgence in the region, once considered its bastion.

 

An analysis of the poll outcome in the north eastern states shows that out of the seven Lok Sabha seats the Congress won in the region, Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’ had traversed through six.

 

The NDA’s biggest dent was in the strife-torn state of Manipur, where the Congress defeated the BJP in the Meitei-dominated Inner Manipur and its ally NPF in the tribal-majority Outer Manipur. There was clear evidence of anger against the BJP in the violence-hit state where more than 200 people have lost their lives and 50,000 others have been rendered homeless.

 

In Mizoram, the ZPM wrested the lone seat from the MNF, while in Nagaland the Congress humbled the NDPP-BJP alliance, winning the lone seat.

 

In Meghalaya, NDA partner NPP lost to Voice of the People Party in Shillong and to the Congress in Tura key constituency – the home seat of Chief Minister Conrad Sangma, where his sister and sitting MP Agatha Sangma lost.

 

In Assam, where Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma led the charge, becoming the BJP’s primary face across the region, the saffron party won nine seats – thereby retaining its 2019 tally. The Congress won three.

 

Among the winners are Gaurav Gogoi, son of former Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, and BJP minister Sarbananda Sonowal. Maulana Badruddin Ajmal-led AIDUF was completely decimated in Assam.

 

The BJP continued its dominance in both Tripura and Arunachal Pradesh, pocketing all the four seats.

 

Political observers say the defeat suffered by the BJP’s regional partners in all the seats they contested in the northeast, except in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, show that the NDA has lost its moorings in all other tribal-majority hill states in the region. They believe that this will result in a considerable change in the power map of the region.

 

Results of the two Assembly elections — in Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim — show that anti-incumbency sentiments had no place in the people’s emphatic endorsement of a second term for the Pema Khandu-led BJP government in Arunachal and Prem Singh Tamang’s Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM) in Sikkim.

 

If the first is a hat-trick to the BJP’s ability to build a deepening connection with the people, centred around the persona of the Prime Minister and his government’s schemes, and its organisational talent, the latter shows a young state figuring out a way forward.

 

The results raise questions, too, about the Opposition’s inertia in both states, and especially in Arunachal Pradesh, where its lack of focus became apparent in its inability to come up with issues that resonated with the electorate.

 

It also reveals the Congress party’s diminishing connection with a region where it was once a dominant force. It won just one out of 60 Assembly seats in Arunachal Pradesh and none of Sikkim’s 32 seats.

 

For both the governments, the real task of governance lies ahead. It would mean a focus on developing infrastructure and employment opportunities.

 

Both are strategic border states crucial to India’s Look East policy. With continuing unrest in Myanmar and China’s hardening stance on territorial disputes, stability in the region remains a priority.

 

Though the two states are insignificant in the larger political matrix, they are important because of their sensitive geography and location – China looms large in both the Himalayan states.

 

There is also the complication of the fragile ecological balance of these Himalayan states, rendered increasingly more vulnerable by natural disasters.

 

Both states have a history of landslides and glacial outburst floods, which have been exacerbated in recent years due to climate crisis and policies insensitive to topography. Khandu and Tamang will have to get cracking.

 

In Darjeeling in North Bengal, which has both urban and rural settings among the plains and hill areas, the BJP got 51.18 per cent, while the TMC got 37.73 per cent of the vote share.

 

BJP candidate Raju Bista, supported by the regional hill parties, retained the Darjeeling seat winning by a margin of over one lakh votes. However, his vote share fell by more than a half. In 2019, Bista had won by a margin of 3,02,228 votes. TMC on the other hand increased its vote share considerably.

 

The BJP was backed by Gorkha Janmukti Morcha (GJM), Gorkha National Liberation Front (GNLF), Communist Party of Revolutionary Marxist (CPRM) and other Hill regional parties.

 

Darjeeling is one of the Lok Sabha seats of West Bengal. Assembly seats that fall under Darjeeling parliamentary constituency are Kalimpong, Darjeeling, Kurseong, Matigara-Naxalbari, Siliguri, Phansidewa, Chopra.

 

Incidentally, Darjeeling is the constituency which had provided a toehold to the BJP in West Bengal politics in 2009.