J&K gears up for Assembly elections

Subhasish Mitra (Wide Angle)

Assembly elections in the Himalayan territory of Jammu and Kashmir are being held five years after Prime Minister Narendra Modi ended its special autonomy.

 

The decision to hold fresh elections follows a Supreme Court order that rejected petitions challenging the revocation of Kashmir's special status. The apex court has set a deadline of September 30 for holding the provincial polls.

 

Nearly 9 million people are registered to exercise their franchise to elect the 90-member legislative assembly, Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar told reporters in New Delhi. The vote will be held in three phases beginning September 18 and the revised date for counting of ballots is October 8.

 

India's only Muslim-majority region, Jammu and Kashmir has been at the heart of more than 75 years of animosity with neighbouring Pakistan since the birth of the two nations in 1947 at independence from colonial rule by Britain.

 

The larger Kashmir region is divided between India, Pakistan and China. The part ruled by India had a special status that was revoked by the Modi government and the state was split into two federally administered territories in 2019.

 

Modi has been asserting that his 2019 decision brought normalcy to Kashmir after decades of bloodshed and that the special status allowed it a measure of administrative autonomy that held back the region's development. His government has since launched multiple projects to boost the local economy while tourism has boomed in the scenic, mountainous region.

 

Elections in Kashmir have been targeted by militants in the past and has also seen low voter turnout. However, the territory recorded its highest turnout in 35 years in the parliamentary elections held in April and May this year, with a 58.46% participation. 

 

CEC Kumar remarked that the people of Kashmir "chose the ballot instead of bullet and boycott" in the parliamentary polls and the Election Commission wants to build on that, adding there would be sufficient security forces to ensure a peaceful vote.

 

The political reorganisation in Jammu and Kashmir had practically bifurcated the Kashmir political class – all secular parties, though squabbling within, on one side and BJP having its own ‘like-minded’ in Apni Party, Peoples Conference and Azad’s party.

 

The first litmus test was the last Lok Sabha polls. The BJP managed to retain the two Jammu seats for the third consecutive term, of the three Kashmir seats, JKNC won two and, expectedly, Engineer Rasheed, the two-time lawmaker currently in jail in a terror funding case, won with a huge margin, taking more votes than PDP, the last ruling party.

 

In the last assembly elections conducted in 2014, JKPDP had 28 seats, BJP 25, JKNC 15, Congress, and Peoples Conference two each, CPI (M) one and three were independents. This position shifted dramatically in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, held within 10 months after the fall of the BJPDP government.

 

In a 90-seat assembly, currently dormant, the Lok Sabha 2024 results changed the scene further. The JKNC secured 34 of the 90 assembly segments, though it contested in Kashmir only as it supported Congress in Jammu. The PDP managed a thin lead in only five seats. Sajad Gani Lone retained his home turf.

 

Political pundits suggest that the Lok Sabha realities may not necessarily be reflected in the upcoming assembly polls.

 

Any party that can muster the support of 46 berths is the king in Jammu and Kashmir. But, post-2024 Lok Sabha polls, getting the magical 46 seems a tall order as ground realities change swiftly in the quick sand of politics. 

 

Elections to the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly will be held in three phases on September 18, September 25 and October 1 and the results will now be declared on October 8.

 

The National Conference and the Congress have finalised a seat-share formula, with the parties contesting 51 and 32 seats, respectively, while the BJP is grappling with resentment among party leaders over its ticket distribution in the Union Territory.