MP, Chhattisgarh results to shape BJP, Cong strategy for 2024 LS polls

Subhasish Mitra (Wide Angle)

The outcome in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh Assembly elections in central India is likely to shape the tactics that the BJP and the Congress may adopt for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, barely a few months away.

 

Politics in both these states are largely bipolar, with the BJP and the Congress dominating the electoral arena there for decades now. There are smaller parties with pockets of influences which may assume clout if the outcomes on December 3 give a fractured verdict.

 

These elections are crucial for Shivraj Singh Chouhan, the longest-serving Chief Minister of the BJP, and his rival, Kamal Nath, as well as incumbent Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel.

 

Assembly elections in five states were held between November 7-30 and counting of votes will take place on December 3.

 

While the BJP is in power in Madhya Pradesh (230 seats), the Congress is ruling Rajasthan (200) and Chhattisgarh (90). In Telangana, the K Chandrashekhar Rao-led Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) has been in power since 10 years and in Mizoram, the MNF is in government.

 

Most exit polls have put the BJP ahead in Madhya Pradesh. They have given the saffron party an edge in Rajasthan, but predicted that it was advantage Congress in Telangana and Chhattisgarh.

 

India Today-Axis My India, Today's Chanakya and India TV-CNX predicted a big victory for the BJP in Madhya Pradesh. While Dainik Bhaskar predicted 95-115 seats for the BJP and 105-120 for the Congress, India Today-Axis My India forecasted that the BJP will get 140 to 162 seats and the Congress 68-90. India TV CNX also gave a landslide to the BJP, pegging its seats at 140 to 159 and 70-89 seats to the Congress. Today's Chanakya forecasted that the BJP would get 151 (plus minus 12 seats) and the Congress 74 (plus minus 12 seats).

 

While Jan Ki Baat exit poll predicted that the BJP would get 100-123 seats and the Congress 102-125, Republic TV-Matrize forecast 118-130 seats for the BJP and 97-107 for the Congress. TV9 Bharatvarsh Polstrat said the BJP would get 106-116 and the Congress would get 111-121. Times Now-ETG gave 105-117 seats to the BJP and 109-125 to the Congress. Jist-TIF-NAI said the Congress was enjoying 2018-like edge in Madhya Pradesh, predicting 107-124 seats for the party as against the BJP's 102-119.

 

While most pollsters predicted an edge for the BJP in Rajasthan, three exit polls in their upper limit forecast a Congress win in the desert state. In Rajasthan, India Today-Axis My India forecast a tight race, predicting 86-106 seats for the Congress, 80-100 seats for the BJP and others 9-18. While Dainik Bhaskar gave 98-105 seats to the BJP and 85-95 to the Congress, Jan Ki Baat pollsters forecast that the BJP would get 100-122 and 62-85 for the Congress.

 

TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat predicted 100-110 for the BJP and 90-100 for the Congress. Times Now ETG poll predicted 108-128 seats for the BJP and 56-72 for the Congress in Rajasthan. Today's Chankaya gave a simple majority to the Congress, projecting that it would get 101 seat as against the BJP's 89. While India TV-CNX put the Congress' tally at 94 to 104 in the 200-member House and the BJP's at 80-90, Republic TV-Matrize gave 115-130 seats to the BJP and 65-75 to the Congress. P-MARQ pollsters gave 105-125 seats to the BJP and 69-91 to the Congress. Jist-TIF-NAI predicted that in Rajasthan there would be continuation of the state's revolving door tradition, forecasting 110 seats for the BJP and the Congress 70.

 

For Chhattisgarh, while ABP News-C Voter predicted 41-53 for the Congress and 36-48 seats for the BJP in the 90-member House, India Today-Axis My India forecast 40-50 seats for the Congress and 36-46 seats for the BJP. India TV-CNX forecast 46-56 seats for the Congress and 30-40 seats for the BJP. News 24-Today's Chanakya predicted that the Congress would bag a clear majority with 57 seats (plus-minus 8) while the BJP would get 33 seats (plus-minus 8 seats). According to Jan Ki Baat, the BJP would get 34-45 and the Congress would get 42-53. Dainik Bhaskar also predicted a win for the Congress, putting its tally at 46-55 seats as against the BJP's 35-45.

 

For Telangana, while India TV-CNX forecast 63-79 seats for the Congress, 31-47 for the BRS, 2-4 for the BJP and 5-7 for the AIMIM, Jan Ki Baat forecast that the Congress would get 48-64 seats, the BRS would get 40-55, BJP 7-13 and AIMIM 4-7. Republic TV-Matrize predicted that in Telangana, the Congress would get 58-68 seats, BRS 46-56, BJP 4-9 and AIMIM 5-7. TV9 Bharatvarsh Polstrat stated that the Congress would get 49-59 seats, the BRS would get 48-58, the BJP 5-10 and AIMIM 6-8. News 24-Today's Chankaya gave a clear victory to the Congress by giving it 71 seats against 33 of the BRS and 7 of the BJP.

 

Pollsters indicated that there was a possibility of a hung House in Mizoram with Zoram People's Movement (ZPM) locked in a close race with the ruling Mizo National Front (MNF). The Congress and the BJP were shown lagging behind in the northeastern state. While India TV-CNX said the MNF would get 14-18 seats, ZPM 12-16, Congress 8-10 and BJP 0-2 in the 40-member House, ABP News-C Voter said MNF would get 15-21, ZPM 12-18 and Congress 2-8. Jan Ki Baat said the MNF would get 10-14 seats, ZPM 15-25 seats, Congress 5-9 and the BJP 0-2. While Republic Matrize said the MNF would get 17-22, ZPM 7-12, Congress 7-10 and BJP 1-2, Times Now-ETG gave 14-18 seats to the MNF, 10-14 to the ZPM, 9-13 to the Congress and 0-2 to the BJP.