UN COP28 host Dubai bears brunt of climate change

Subhasish Mitra (Wide Angle)

Call it a paradox or a living example of man proposes, God disposes. Dubai which hosted with all fanfare the United Nations COP28 last year, is at present reeling under the adverse effect of climate change.

 

When growing populations and urbanisation meet extreme weather, the results demand long-term planning and adaptation. The fiendish UAE storms have, indeed, taught us the need to make our future climate-proof.

 

The violent storms and torrential rain that lashed the UAE and neighbouring countries this week have been a sobering reminder not only of the power of nature, but of the effect humanity is having on the planet’s climate.

 

Rainfall is rare in the UAE and elsewhere on the Arabian Peninsula, which is typically known for its dry desert climate. Summer air temperatures can soar above 50 degrees Celsius.

 

Following Tuesday's events, questions were raised whether cloud seeding, a process that the UAE frequently conducts, could have caused the heavy rains. But climate experts said global warming was the main culprit behind extreme weather events.

 

Researchers anticipate that climate change will lead to heightened temperatures, increased humidity and a greater risk of flooding in parts of the Gulf region. The problem can be worsened in countries like the UAE where there is a lack of drainage infrastructure to cope with heavy rains.

 

A UAE government agency that oversees cloud seeding - a process of manipulating clouds to increase rainfall - denied that any such operations took place before the storm.

 

The state-run WAM news agency called the rain a historic weather event that surpassed anything documented since the start of data collection in 1949. The flooding sparked speculation that the UAE's aggressive campaign of cloud seeding -- flying small planes through clouds dispersing chemicals aimed at getting rain to fall -- may have contributed to the deluge. 

 

But experts said the storm systems that produced the rain were forecast well in advance and that cloud seeding alone would not have caused such flooding.

 

Jeff Masters, a meteorologist for Yale Climate Connections, said the flooding in Dubai was caused by an unusually strong low pressure system that drove many rounds of heavy thunderstorms. Scientists also say climate change is responsible for more intense and more frequent extreme storms, droughts, floods and wildfires around the world. Dubai hosted the United Nations' COP28 climate talks just last year.

 

Abu Dhabi's state-linked newspaper 'The National' in an editorial described the heavy rains as a warning to countries in the wider Persian Gulf region to climate-proof their futures.

 

The scale of this task is more daunting that it appears even at first glance, because such changes involve changing the urban environment of a region that for as long as it has been inhabited, has experienced little but heat and sand, the newspaper said.

 

Although life in the Emirates was disrupted as roads were submerged, schools shut their doors and many employees were unable to get to work, it was Oman that bore the brunt of the extreme weather.

 

The rain that plunged Dubai underwater is associated with a larger storm system traversing the Arabian Peninsula and moving across the Gulf of Oman. This same system is also bringing unusually wet weather to nearby Oman and southeastern Iran.

 

Sadly, it is not the first time the Middle East and North Africa has been struck by such extreme rainfall: last year, more than 5,000 people lost their lives when Storm Daniel dropped more than 400mm of rain on north-east Libya in less than 24 hours. The divided country’s many difficulties left it woefully unprepared for such a crisis, raising the question: how can nations in this region climate-proof their futures?

 

The UAE has a good track record of preparedness. In 2017, it invested in the creation of a National Early Warning System in line with a strategic plan development by the National Emergency Crisis and Disasters Management Authority. This brought together government agencies and telecoms companies to develop an alert system for incidents just like extreme weather.

 

Even so, this week’s storm cost one life, caused damage to property and had an international ripple effect as Dubai International Airport, the world’s busiest, was forced to suspend operations. This highlights the fact that adapting to climate change is a continuing challenge.

 

It is a challenge that must be met, because such violent weather seems set to stay. The World Meteorological Organisation says every 1°C degree of global warming is projected to cause a 7 per cent increase in extreme daily rainfall.

 

And there should be no doubt that humanity is fuelling this threat: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Sixth Assessment Report released in 2021, said human-caused rise in greenhouse gases has increased the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

 

Friederike Otto, a leader in the field of assessing the role of climate change on specific extreme weather events, attributed global warming to the unusual rainfall. "It is highly likely that the deadly and destructive rain in Oman and Dubai was made heavier by human-caused climate change," said Otto, of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College, London.

 

Given the population growth and urbanisation that is taking place in many parts of Gulf and wider Middle East, this week’s floods further highlight the need to take a long-term view of preparing their urban centres. Some cities face a problem in finding ways for floodwater to dissipate. 

 

The scale of this task is more daunting that it appears even at first glance, because such changes involve changing the urban environment of a region that for as long as it has been inhabited, has experienced little but heat and sand. In addition, not all countries have the resources to prioritise this preparation.

 

But it is not just governments that have a role to play in climate-proofing the future. We as individuals must think about what kind of cities and towns we will want to live in, in the years to come. There is also the issue of personal responsibility: the authorities can prepare and warn but the responsibility for our personal safety and for protecting our loved ones and property by making the right decisions, including having the right insurance, is primarily down to us.

 

It would be tempting to chalk down this week’s storms and floods as a once in a generation event. Sadly, the science proves that this kind of weather is becoming the new norm. The work to adapt and prepare for this new reality will continue long after this week’s clean-up operation is over.