Bangladesh: Strategic Challenge for India

Dr Satywan Sourav

Sheikh Hasina is pro-India, so her absence could invite Chinese gains in Bangladesh, which could challenge India's influence. China's recent initiatives in Bangladesh under the Belt and Road Initiative could gain further momentum, thereby reducing India's strategic edge. Political unrest in Bangladesh could affect the Bengali population of West Bengal, which could influence domestic politics and policy-making in India. Refugee influx or political unrest in Bangladesh could become a contentious issue in West Bengal state politics, which could influence electoral dynamics.

The recent political upheaval in Bangladesh, including the resignation and move of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to India, has brought new challenges and complexities to India's regional diplomacy. With Bangladesh undergoing military rule and civil unrest, India finds its strategic interests and regional policy at a crossroads, which requires it to re-evaluate its diplomatic stance.

The sudden political vacuum in Bangladesh and the return of military rule pose challenges for India which has historically supported democratic governance in its neighbourhood. For example: The abrupt end of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s term could lead to unexpected policy changes in Dhaka, impacting bilateral initiatives such as border management and counter-terrorism measures. The involvement of Islamist groups such as Jamaat-e-Islami in the protests could potentially alter the secular fabric of Bangladeshi politics, threatening regional security and impacting India’s efforts against radicalism. The growing influence of radical elements could lead to increased radical activities along the border, requiring India to take more stringent security measures.

India’s vital trade ties with Bangladesh are at risk. Cross-border disruptions and delayed payments for Indian exporters reflect the sensitivity of these countries’ economic interdependence. For example: Recent curfews and protests have temporarily closed key trade routes such as the Petrapole-Benapole border, disrupting bilateral trade worth millions of dollars per day. The unstable political scenario could lead to an influx of refugees and a rise in cross-border crimes, forcing India to tighten security measures. Past political upheaval in Bangladesh has historically led to refugee crises, particularly during the 1971 war, which had a lasting impact on India’s northeastern states.

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is pro-India, so her absence could invite Chinese influence in Bangladesh, which could challenge India’s influence. China’s recent initiatives in Bangladesh under the Belt and Road Initiative could gain further momentum, reducing India’s strategic edge. Maintaining a balance between non-interference and the need to protect its interests could put India’s international image as a regional leader and stabilizer at stake. Overly aggressive policies or perceived interference in Bangladesh’s internal affairs could lead to international criticism and impact India’s standing in global forums. Political unrest in Bangladesh could affect the Bengali population of West Bengal, which could influence domestic politics and policy-making in India. Refugee influx or political unrest in Bangladesh could become a contentious issue in West Bengal state politics, which could influence electoral dynamics.

India should maintain open channels of communication with all political entities in Bangladesh, including the interim military government, to safeguard its interests and promote stability. Host diplomatic dialogue with key Bangladeshi leaders and international stakeholders to discuss stabilization efforts and democratic transitions. Using economic tools such as trade promotion, aid, and investment could help India use its soft power and foster good relations irrespective of the ruling regime. Favorable trade agreements or development assistance for infrastructure projects in Bangladesh should be increased, which would strengthen economic ties.

Enhancing security cooperation, intelligence sharing, and joint operations against terrorism and cross-border crimes can help manage the consequences of political instability. Initiating joint patrols and intelligence sharing to prevent smuggling and terrorist activities along the India-Bangladesh border. Strengthening cultural ties and people-to-people contacts can serve as the basis for lasting ties, thereby reducing political and ideological differences. Promoting cultural festivals and student exchange programs to promote mutual understanding and goodwill between the people of the two countries. Building regional consensus through forums such as SAARC and BIMSTEC to address common challenges such as security and development should promote a collective approach to stability. Initiating a regional dialogue focused on security and economic development that includes Bangladesh and other neighboring countries.

With the political crisis in Bangladesh, India must move strategically in this transitional phase and strike a balance between non-interference and active engagement. The evolution of India’s diplomatic strategy will be crucial in maintaining regional stability and safeguarding its interests amid the changing political landscape of its neighbor. This friendly diplomacy can help India strengthen its role as a regional leader committed to peace and development.