Nancy Pelosi’s maverick diplomacy!

SUBHASHIS MITTRA - Wide Angle

Diplomats may view it as a courageous show of solidarity with a liberal democracy threatened by Beijing’s growing belligerence or a reckless, ill-timed act of personal brinkmanship. But the fact remains that US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi defied the Chinese government and its allies in Moscow when she went to Taiwan for a visit that was only confirmed when her plane landed in Taipei, marking a vicious cycle of threats and defiance that risks bringing the world’s two biggest powers into direct military confrontation. A miscalculation by either side could plunge a world, already grappling with the war in Ukraine, into an even deeper crisis, ending a seven-decade period of peace over Taiwan. India will suffer too. Any conflict would engulf the South China Sea and Malacca Straits through which more than half of India’s trade passes. Pelosi, the second in line to the presidency after the vice-president, is the highest-ranking American official to visit Taiwan, a self-governed territory, in 25 years. China views Taiwan as part of its territory, despite having never controlled it and has long vowed to reunify the island with the Chinese mainland, by force if necessary. Hence, the trip could further muddle Washington's already complicated relationship with Beijing as the two sides differ over trade, the war in Ukraine, human rights and more.

 

Pelosi's visit is regarded as a setback for the image of Chinese President Xi, who is widely expected to get an unprecedented third five-year term unlike his predecessors. Domestic political considerations appear to be driving both sides into their respective corners in this entirely avoidable crisis. Xi is three months away from a politically sensitive Party Congress that will mark the start of his third term. Furious over the visit of Pelosi to Taipei, the Chinese military conducted a series of naval-air joint drills around Taiwan amid speculation that it may be attempting a blockade of the self-ruled island. The exercises indicate that Beijing is ramping up its intimidation campaign targeting Taipei in the wake of Pelosi's visit. It is the first time the PLA has staged such a massive and complicated war game in what it deemed a de facto blockade of the island with almost all the PLA drill areas taking place across the median line that divides the Taiwan Strait and also covering the sensitive eastern coast of Taiwan. Already, China is preparing new shows of force in the Taiwan Strait to make clear that its claims are non-negotiable on the island it regards as a renegade province. After Pelosi's departure, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said what she has done is definitely not a defense and maintenance of democracy, but a provocation and violation of China's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

 

One thing is very clear that Pelosi's Taiwan visit has infuriated China, which views the island nation as its wayward breakaway province. China also views visits to Taiwan by foreign officials as recognising its sovereignty. Today the world faces a choice between democracy and autocracy, Pelosi said in a short speech during a meeting with Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen. "America's determination to preserve democracy, here in Taiwan and around the world, remains ironclad," she asserted. The Biden administration and Pelosi have said the United States remains committed to the so-called one-China policy, which recognises Beijing but allows informal relations and defense ties with Taipei. The administration discouraged, but did not prevent, Pelosi from visiting. Pelosi's trip has definitely heightened US-China tensions more than visits by other members of Congress because of her position as Leader of the House of Representatives. The last Speaker to visit Taiwan was Newt Gingrich in 1997. China and Taiwan, which split in 1949 after a civil war, have no official relations but multi-billion dollar business ties.

 

With her visit to Taiwan, Pelosi has certainly queered the pitch for Washington’s ties with Beijing -- a development Delhi can’t afford to treat as a distant crisis. The greater the Chinese oppression of its minorities and the more assertive it is towards its territorial claims on Taiwan and South China Sea, the more substantive the US resistance will become. A war over Taiwan may not be imminent. But the conflict over Taiwan is deepening. Unlike in Ukraine, where the US is not directly fighting Russia, US commitment to defend Taiwan would pit American armed forces against the PLA in the event of an escalation. US allies, Japan and Australia, are also committed to join it in securing Taiwan against a Chinese invasion. The global disruption from a conflict over Taiwan could be much larger than that unfolding due to Ukraine as Taiwan is among the top economic entities in the world. It is a leading producer of semiconductor chips and straddles the vital maritime trade routes in the Indo-Pacific. Equally significant is the possibility that the deepening conflict between US and China could also draw India into it. While Beijing might think twice before risking a direct conflict with Washington over Taiwan, it could hit out at its other neighbours, including India, to compensate for the visible weakness vis-a-vis the United States.

 

It is the timing in geopolitics that matters, and this was far from the right time for a trip to Taipei. It stokes a new, precarious crisis for the Biden administration. The fallout from her visit plunges the Biden administration into a tricky — and arguably unnecessary — period of brinkmanship with China. The risks of Pelosi’s visit should not be underestimated. Xi, China’s powerful leader, warned US president Joe Biden last week that the US was “playing with fire”. According to Beijing’s official statement, Xi did not mention Pelosi’s name but said his government would “resolutely safeguard China’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity”. The latest crisis has made clear the perilous state of relations between the world’s two biggest powers.